It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
[…] Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further global warming and changes in all components of the climate system…Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
---“Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis,” International Panel on Climate Control, Fifth Assessment Report (WGI AR5) (September 2013)
The strength of the evidence and expert opinion just keeps getting stronger. Of course, it has long been strong; it's just gone from "very likely" to "extremely likely." That equates to a 95% level of confidence as they define their terms. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established and overseen by the UN at the behest of many of its members, is the most authoritative and respected body in the world addressing issues of climate change. Periodically it selects teams from among the most accomplished and respected climate scientists in the world to perform meta-studies of the most recent climate change research and results. This, the fifth study, and first since 2007, involved 259 expert analysts, authors and reviewers from 39 countries. Every notable scientific organization, world-wide, and over 97% of all climate scientists have concurred in their work and conclusions.
A competent summary article by NBCNews.com, “Top scientists urge cap on carbon emissions to limit climate change,” by Matthew DeLuca, NBC News (Sep. 27, 2013) reviews the basic findings, increased confidence in the dominant role of we humans are playing in climate change, the implications, and the need for remedial initiatives. They also summarize the broader, longer term perspective of climate change scientists on the misplaced emphasis of climate-change deniers’ on elements of error in some projections and the recent period when air temperature averages appear not to have increased. Of course, you don’t have to be a top climate scientist to recognize that there are many other measures of increased temperatures in the oceans, at the polar caps, and many other climate change events and measures that not only confirm prior levels of confidence in climate change and mankind’s role in in it, they have increased the level of top scientist’s confidence in their conclusions.
If you find more confidence or assurance in the analysis and opinion of The Economist (as I often do across a range of issues), their most recent edition offers us another of its well balanced and well-considered Leaders essays, “Climate Science: Stubborn Things,” The Economist (October 5, 2013)
If you are interested in more layers of information, data and findings, this link (or the highlighted link, above) will take you to the full IPCC report: www.climatechange2013.org . It is long and exhaustive; even the executive summary is 36 pages long. If you are interested, I’d start with the data section about the study and participants linked on the front page. Then link to the executive study, and go deeper into the research data as you wish.
But the IPCC conclusions do not include confidence that major countries will timely act to reduce CO2 levels we continue to push into the atmosphere. So don’t expect people or their governments to react to address these problems until their effects become very personal, until the water is lapping up on their own doorsteps. But if you've been paying attention, like the IPCC scientist teams, you may have noticed that too is happening in more and more places.
A competent summary article by NBCNews.com, “Top scientists urge cap on carbon emissions to limit climate change,” by Matthew DeLuca, NBC News (Sep. 27, 2013) reviews the basic findings, increased confidence in the dominant role of we humans are playing in climate change, the implications, and the need for remedial initiatives. They also summarize the broader, longer term perspective of climate change scientists on the misplaced emphasis of climate-change deniers’ on elements of error in some projections and the recent period when air temperature averages appear not to have increased. Of course, you don’t have to be a top climate scientist to recognize that there are many other measures of increased temperatures in the oceans, at the polar caps, and many other climate change events and measures that not only confirm prior levels of confidence in climate change and mankind’s role in in it, they have increased the level of top scientist’s confidence in their conclusions.
If you find more confidence or assurance in the analysis and opinion of The Economist (as I often do across a range of issues), their most recent edition offers us another of its well balanced and well-considered Leaders essays, “Climate Science: Stubborn Things,” The Economist (October 5, 2013)
If you are interested in more layers of information, data and findings, this link (or the highlighted link, above) will take you to the full IPCC report: www.climatechange2013.org . It is long and exhaustive; even the executive summary is 36 pages long. If you are interested, I’d start with the data section about the study and participants linked on the front page. Then link to the executive study, and go deeper into the research data as you wish.
But the IPCC conclusions do not include confidence that major countries will timely act to reduce CO2 levels we continue to push into the atmosphere. So don’t expect people or their governments to react to address these problems until their effects become very personal, until the water is lapping up on their own doorsteps. But if you've been paying attention, like the IPCC scientist teams, you may have noticed that too is happening in more and more places.
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