Dems & Independents: More They Know, More They Like Healthcare Bill

The [new AP] poll's questions included a true-or-false quiz on 19 items, some of which are in the [new health care] law and others not. People were also asked how confident they were about their answers. For the most part, majorities picked the right answers. But a sizable number also got things wrong. And right or wrong, people were unsure of their answers. Two-thirds or more were uncertain about their responses on eight of nine core provisions of the legislation.

Analysis of the findings indicated a split as far as the impact of accurate knowledge, between Democrats and independents on one side and Republicans on the other. Accurate knowledge of the law made no difference in overwhelming opposition from Republicans... However, for Democrats and independents, the more accurate knowledge people had of the bill, the more they liked it.

---"AP Poll: Health care law making us muddle-minded," By Ricardo Alonzo-Zaldivar and Trevor Tompson, Associated Press (9.22.10)

This poll is, perhaps, the most helpful clarification to date of what people are really thinking in their confusion about the provisions of the new healthcare legislation (the Affordable Care Act). It affirmed how confused and unsure they were of what the bill will do. For example, asked how the Congressional Budget Office had scored the cost of the legislation, 81% answered it wrong, saying it would increase the government's debt, when the CBO concluded it would reduce the federal budget deficit over time. (But yes, there remain those many important areas related to the definition and actual provision of covered care that sooner or later must be addressed.)

Both in this poll and another recent poll, a lack of understanding played a clear role in the majority of people being against the bill or neutral toward it. Of course, stated another way, it's also true that the majority of people were for the bill or neutral toward. The understandings of Dems and independents determine the outcome; it matters how much they know, and how confident they are about it. From the article:

Overall, three out of ten in the poll said they favored the law, while four in ten said they were opposed. Another 30 percent were neutral. The findings on support and opposition differ from another recent AP poll, but the two surveys cannot be compared because they were drawn up and carried out differently. The other survey, an AP-GfK political poll, found 41 percent supporting the bill and 46 percent opposing it, with only 12 percent neutral.

The new survey was conducted Aug. 31 to Sept. 7, and involved interviews with 1,251 randomly chosen adults nationwide. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

And more, the poll indicates that 40% of the respondents believe the law did not go far enough in reforming our health care system. Poll results, as a whole, suggest that Republicans are misreading the publics support for repeal. From a related article:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama's health care overhaul has divided the nation, and Republicans believe their call for repeal will help them win elections in November. But the picture's not that clear cut. A new AP poll finds that Americans who think the law should have done more outnumber those who think the government should stay out of health care by 2-to-1...

The poll found that about four in 10 adults think the new law did not go far enough to change the health care system, regardless of whether they support the law, oppose it or remain neutral. On the other side, about one in five say they oppose the law because they think the federal government should not be involved in health care at all.

Those numbers are no endorsement for Obama's plan, but the survey also found a deep-seated desire for change that could pose a problem for Republicans. Only 25 percent in the poll said minimal tinkering would suffice for the health care system...Republicans "are going to have to contend with the 75 percent who want substantial changes in the system," said Stanford political science professor Jon Krosnick, who directed the university's participation."Republican legislators' passion to repeal the legislation is understandable if they are paying attention to members of their own party," Krosnick added. "But if they want to be responsive to all Americans, there are more Democrats and independents than there are Republicans."

---"AP Poll: Many think health overhaul should do more," by Ricardo Alonzo-Zaldiva and Jennifer Agiesta, Associated Press/The Providence Sunday Journal (9.26.10)

Then on September 23--last Thursday--the first of the new healthcare law's provisions went into effect. And for the many positively affected by it, that was welcome news. Actually, most all of us benefit from some of those provisions. On the 23rd and 24th, newspapers, television news, and on-line outlets reported the changes and implications in succinct, bullet-point format. Friend and health care blogger, Sandy Parker, weighed in with the others:

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 08:39 PM PDT

Today was the day the first set of benefits under the Affordable Care Act became available. Starting today (in the words of AmericasFairHealthCare.org):

•Full access to coverage - Children under 19 can no longer be rejected from health care plans due to pre-existing conditions. New plans cannot exclude anyone from coverage for a pre-existing condition.
•No more "lifetime limits" - Insurers can no longer limit the amount of coverage someone can receive over their lifetime.
•Free preventive care - New health insurance plans must provide preventive services such as mammograms and immunizations.
•Expanded coverage to young adults - Young adults can stay on their parents' health plan until age 26.

Consumer Reports also offers an excellent concise Guide to New Benefits—including the fine print. The New York Times has run no fewer than seven articles in the last three days related to health care reform. Together, they give a sense of the benefits, concerns and controversies swirling around, six months from the day the ACA was signed into law. [T]hey are summarized on the Times' excellent Health Care Reform News webpage.

--"Today was a big day," by Sandy Parker, So what do you think about that? (9.23.10)

Just addressing this handful of changes now in effect--changes that will help a lot of people--makes them appear more comprehensible, and more likely to be viewed favorably by many more people they actually help. While not addressed in any of the articles cited above, there can be little doubt that the confusion and misunderstanding that many people harbor about the new bill are directly related to the polarized politics surrounding it--the pull-out-all-stops approach, the truth-twisting and misrepresentations, of Republicans and other politically and financially interested groups. The purpose has been to mislead and confuse. And they have largely succeeded.

It is reported that President Obama will soon make yet another attempt to communicate the basic facts and advantages of the plan to the American public. If it is that clear that the better Dems and independents understand the bill, the better they like it, it will be all the more important to Dems in the mid-term elections that Obama be more effective this time.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gSXIViw_RWvU3uweKkhKfhAVGgqgD9ICHR1O2
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_HEALTH_CARE_POLL?SITE=RIPRJ&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT